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Bolshakov S.N. [Political forecast: ai as a challenge to state legitimacy and political institutions] Political Science and Technology, 2025, Vol. 5, Iss. 4 Available at: https://politicjournal.ru/PDF/02PK425.pdf (in Russian).

Political forecast: ai as a challenge to state legitimacy and political institutions

Bolshakov Sergey Nikolaevich
Russian State Social University, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: snbolshakov@mail.ru
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4858-8216
RSCI: https://elibrary.ru/author_profile.asp?id=277851
WoS: https://www.webofscience.com/wos/author/rid/AAE-5235-2022
SCOPUS: https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.url?authorId=56993399900

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive political and forecasting analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the transformation of public administration, democratic institutions, and social structure through 2040. To identify key risks, opportunities, and emerging ideological rifts. Research Methods. The study utilizes a combination of methods, including a qualitative analysis of statements and forecasts by leading international experts and a conceptual analysis of contemporary scientific publications. Novelty. The novelty lies in the synthesis of technological forecasting and political analysis, which allows us to identify not technical, but systemic socio-political threats posed by AI (ecological footprint, skills erosion, governance gap). The article proposes viewing the future not as a binary choice between utopia and dystopia, but as a battleground between alternative political projects (transhumanism and bioconservatism, technocracy and digital democracy).

Keywords: artificial intelligence; political forecasting; governance; digital democracy; algorithmic governance; technocracy; human rights; social risks of AI; political ideologies

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